巴菲特永不过时并且久经考验的8大预测

作者: 楚天舒 发布时间: 2010-1-16 13:20:31

Timeless and Time-Tested Warren Buffett Watch Predictions

巴菲特永不过时并且久经考验的8大预测

来源：http://www.cnbc.com/id/28392900

作者：Alex Crippen

翻译：刘建位

Published: Monday, 30 Nov 2009 | 11:48 AM ET

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By: Alex Crippen

Executive Producer

As a new year approaches, it is customary for journalists to make predictions about the future.

每到年底，按照惯例，媒体都会预测未来。

In keeping with Buffett{dyh}s long-term way of looking at things, Warren Buffett Watch offers eight predictions that are intentionally on the {dyh}timeless{dyh} side of the prognostication spectrum.

做为一个长期追踪巴菲特的节目，CNBC的巴菲特观察（Warren Buffett Watch）为大家奉献巴菲特先生8个永不过时的预测。

In keeping with what{dyh}s becoming a holiday tradition, they are the same set of predictions we{dyh}ve offered for the past two years. We still stand by them.

作为一个新年节日的传统节目，今年的8个预测和我们过去两年提供的预测属于同一个体系，我们至今仍然坚持这些预测。

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Warren Buffett became one of the wealthiest people in the world by making predictions and putting money behind those predictions. Every time he buys a stock or a business or some other investment, he{dyh}s forecasting the future.

要知道，巴菲特世界上最有钱的富翁和最会赚钱的投资大师，全都是靠做出正确的预测和根据这些预测做出正确的行动。每一次他买入股票和收购企业之时，都是在预测未来。

Judging by the incredible returns of his holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Buffett and his colleagues are very good at making those predictions.

巴菲特管理的伯克希尔公司过去辉煌的业绩表明，巴菲特的预测非常成功。

Of course, it helps when you can give your predictions plenty of time to come true. That{dyh}s one reason Buffett{dyh}s favorite holding period for investments in "outstanding businesses with outstanding managements" is "forever." After all, "We don{dyh}t get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we{dyh}ll wait, we{dyh}ll wait indefinitely."

当然，你需要给你的预测足够的时间等待它们变成现实。这正是为什么巴菲特愿意持有具有一流业务一流管理的超级明星股的时间是“永远”的原因之一。 “我们获得成功靠的不是行动，而是正确。至于我们愿意等待多长时间，我们愿意无限期等待。”

With that in mind, here are Warren Buffett Watch{dyh}s {dyh}timeless{dyh} predictions.

以下是巴菲特永不过时的8个预测，你可要牢记。

1. Recessions can{dyh}t be avoided forever. As 2007 was coming to a close, Buffett told our Becky Quick that if unemployment picks up significantly, the "dominoes" will fall and the U.S. economy will fall into recession in 2008. He was right, but not alarmed. "It is the nature of capitalism to periodically have recessions. People overshoot." (He told Becky she{dyh}s young enough to expect to see 6 or 7 or them.)

1、衰退不可能永远避免。

在2007年快到年底时，巴菲特回答Becky Quick时说：如果失业率大幅度上升，多米诺骨牌将会随之倒掉，美国经济2008年将会陷入衰退。他的预测是对的，但他并没有拉响警报。“资本主义经济的本性是同期性发生经济衰退。人们经常反应过度。”（巴菲特告诉Becky，37岁的她还年轻，可能会遇到6到7次衰退。）

2. We{dyh}ll survive current and future recessions just as we{dyh}ve survived past problems. As Buffett told us in August, 2007, (and repeated throughout 2008 and 2009): "We{dyh}ve got a wonderful economy... There{dyh}s never been anything like that in the history of the world. We live seven times better than the people did a century ago on average... We{dyh}ve had problems all along. If you look at the last century, we had that Great Depression and World War Two, we had the Cold War, we had the atomic bomb, but the country does well."

2、我们将会挺过现在的和未来的衰退，就像我们成功挺过历史上的多次衰退一样。2007年8月巴菲特说，2008年和2009年他又一再重复：“我们美国拥有一个非常好的经济体系。……在全世界历史上从来没有过如何卓越的经济体系。我们现在的生活水平比100年前翻了7番（128倍）……我们过去一直不断碰到问题。如果你回顾一下上个世纪，1929年的经济大衰退，两次世界大战，还有原子弹爆炸，但美国仍然做的很棒。”

3. Recessions will create opportunities. "I made by far the best buys I{dyh}ve ever made in my lifetime in 1974. And that was a time of great pessimism and the oil shock and stagflation and all those sort of things. But stocks were cheap."

3、衰退将会创造机会。“我的一生中至今为止最好的股票买入机会是在1974年。那是一个极度悲观的时期，石油禁运，经济停滞不前，还有很多类似的不利事件。但这却使股票变得非常便宜。”

4. All stocks won{dyh}t be cheap. Like Ted Williams waiting for the right pitch, a successful investor waits for the right stock at the right price, and it doesn{dyh}t happen every day. "What{dyh}s nice about investing is you don{dyh}t have to swing at pitches. You can watch pitches come in one inch above or one inch below your navel, and you don{dyh}t have to swing. No umpire is going to call you out." You get in trouble, Buffett says, when you listen to the crowd chanting "Swing, batter, swing!"

4、并非所有的股票都是便宜的。成功的投资者应该像棒球明星Ted Williams等待有利的一个击球机会一样，等待合适的股票跌到合适的价位才出手，但这样的机会并不是每天都有的。“投资最好的是，你并不需要不得不被迫挥棒击球。你可以观察来球高于还是低于肚脐一寸，但你并非必须挥杆击球。没有裁判会判你出局。”你应该根据你自己的判断决定是否出手买入，不想买你可以一直不出手。但如果你听从人群“挥棒！击球！挥棒！”就出手的话，你就会陷入大麻烦。

5. The crowd will make mistakes. Buffett cites this piece of advice from his mentorBenjamin Graham: "You{dyh}re neither right nor wrong because other people agree with you. You{dyh}re right because your facts are right and your reasoning is right—and that{dyh}s the only thing that makes you right. And if your facts and reasoning are right, you don{dyh}t have to worry about anybody else."

5、大多数人会是错误的。巴菲特经常引用他的导师格雷厄姆的一段名言：“你是正确的，是因为你的事实根据是正确的，你的推理是正确的，这是唯一使你正确的原因。如果你的事实根据和推理是正确，你就不用再考虑别人是什么看法。”

6. Investors will mistakenly think falling stock prices are bad. "If they reduce the price of hamburgers at McDonald{dyh}s today I feel terrific. Now I don{dyh}t go back and think, gee, I paid a little more yesterday. I think I{dyh}m going to be buying them cheaper today. Anything you{dyh}re going to be buying in the future, you want to have get cheaper."

6、投资者总是错误地认为股价股价下跌是坏事。“如果今天麦当劳汉堡大减价，降价降到让我感到吃惊。我不会扭头而加，气愤地想，昨天我吃麦当劳汉堡又多花钱了。我肯定会马上去买降价后更便宜的汉堡。任何将来你想要购买的东西，你都希望会变得更便宜。”

7. Good times will prompt bad decisions. In his 2000 Letter to Berkshire shareholders, Buffett compared the crowd that buys big when prices are high to Cinderella at the ball. "They know that overstaying the festivities - that is, continuing to speculate in companies that have gigantic valuations relative to the cash they are likely to generate in the future - will eventually bring on pumpkins and mice. But they nevertheless hate to miss a single minute of what is one helluva party. Therefore, the giddy participants all plan to leave just seconds before midnight. There{dyh}s a problem, though: They are dancing in a room in which the clocks have no hands."

7、越是大牛市越可能导致重大错误买入决策。巴菲特2000年致股东的信中，把那些在股市很高时大量疯狂买入的投资者比喻成舞会上的灰姑娘：“他们知道，有些公司未来能够产生的现金流量相比估值已经高估到惊人的地步，却继续投机这些股票，就像灰姑娘知道在庆典上停留过久会发现马车会变回南瓜马会变回老鼠一样。但是他们从内心根本不愿意错误这个狂欢大聚会哪怕一分钟。因此，这些头脑发晕的参加者们都只想是最后一刻来临之前几秒种才离开。但问题是，他们是在一个时间根本没有指针的房间时跳舞。”

8. There will be more dancing at another wild party followed by another painful hangover. Looking back at the Internet bubble, Buffett is quoted as saying, "The world went mad. What we learn from history is that people don{dyh}t learn from history."